The Ratto Report – FCLV 2020 3rd Quarter Review

The Ratto Report
3rd Quarter 2020

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FCA NEWSLETTER
DESERT REGION – LAS VEGAS CHAPTER
3rd Quarter 2020

Written by John Ratto
Edited by Chuck Damus

Dateline: July 2020

We are four+ months into the pandemic…and not much has changed from March. As Yogi Berra would say, “It feels like Deja-vu all over again.” We started this voyage with uncertainty, with people getting sick, and the fear that our lives and our economy would be radically changed in the attempt to stem the tide of the spreading virus. Shuttering the economy slowed the spread of the virus, but it nearly killed the economy. Absent massive fiscal stimulus, it might have bankrupted all of us (both individuals and companies). When the economy began to re-open in May, it jump started the financial system just as it was about to flat line, but it also resulted in a significant increase in the number of new covid virus cases. In July, we have more new cases than we did back in March/April. So that it where we stand in July. The economy is stumbling forward, but it is no longer on life support. Meanwhile, the virus is regaining strength. Where we will be three months from now (at the end of September), is basically unknown. So, in many ways we are back at square one. That square is labeled uncertainty.

Unfortunately, it still remains difficult to say whether things are getting better, or getting worse.

What is certain is that, as of early July, nearly 140,000 have died in the US. We are the world wide leaders, by far, in deaths. Given that (only) about 600,000 have died worldwide, this clearly demonstrates that we have not handled the epidemic well. With about 5% of the world’s population, we have suffered about 25% of the deaths. This is not the sort of leadership than the USA is known for.

Despite all of this turmoil, we are on track to have an election in November. The buildup looks to be a doozy.

Your Club did not organize any Socials or Drives during the second quarter of 2020, and, given the turmoil and continued restrictions, there may not be any during the third quarter of 2020. So, there are no good stories to tell, and there may not be any for a while. The Ferrari Club lies dormant. But ‘We’ll be Back!!!’

Dateline: October 2020

Three more months have passed, and basically nothing has changed. The virus spreads faster…the virus spreads slower…but the virus continues to spread, and this remains a harsh reality. In these three months, 60,000 more Americans have died. Experts estimate, given the return of cold weather, that as many as a 100,000 more will die by the end of the year. How many more will die before the virus is stopped? Meanwhile, the process of developing a vaccine continues on an ASAP basis. Even with the push, our best estimates for a generally available vaccine range from early November (per the President) to mid-2021 (per the experts).

Unfortunately, it still remains difficult to say whether things are getting better, or getting worse.

Meanwhile, the economy remains pretty good, but that may be simply the stock market’s response to all this stimulus being thrown about. And, we hurdle forward toward a highly contested (on a myriad of levels) election, looming less than a month ahead. Man, there is a lot happening!

And just a little late breaking news: President Trump (and many others in the White House) has tested positive for Covid. The severity of his illness, and really how this will all play out, and its effect on the election, are still unknown. But things could get very interesting.

FORMULA 1 NEWS

EXTRA – EXTRA
READ ALL ABOUT IT

It pleases me greatly to have some good news to convey…for a change. Formula 1 racing is back! It may be four month late and it may look a bit different (there are NO fans – none – in the grandstands), but it seems wonderful anyway…a ray of hope for a better tomorrow. And some sports to watch while socially distancing. Things have been a bit tentative at the track; the commentators are clearly walking on strange ground. But, it looked familiar enough to cherish. Sports on TV gives us something to think about and read about, something to talk about, something to watch! It provides a diversion that takes our minds away from the woes that surround us. Thank the powers that be for small favors.

Given that the race in Austria on July 5 will be the first of the season, let’s do a little organizational work to prepare.

Teams: Most teams remain the same. However, Toro Rosso has been renamed Alpha Tauri (it is a bright star in the night sky, in case you are curious). Force India was renamed last year – to Racing Point; that remains unchanged. There are still 10 teams, meaning 20 cars will contest each race.

Driver Changes: Youngster Nicholas Latifi, the only rookie in this year’s field, replaces oldster Robert Kubica (retired) at Williams. Nico Hulkenberg was released by Renault; he is replaced by Estaban Ocon, who drove for Force India in 2018, but was idle in 2019.

Returning Drivers: Six time World Champion Lewis Hamilton and Valteri Bottas return at Mercedes, as do Max Verstappen and Alex Albon (who joined the team in mid-2019) at Red Bull. Lame duck Sebastian Vettel (he has not been retained for 2021) and Charles Leclerc return at Ferrari.

Cars: They all have a million updates from last year, but they are all basically the same as last year. This is partly because there have been few (relatively) rule changes. The Mercedes Dual Axis Steering system was protested, but the stewards deemed it legal, at least for now. As if that team needs any more advantages. All this means that the Mercedes are likely to still be fastest, and the ones to beat.

July 5: Grand Prix of Austria at the Red Bull Ring (1ST race of 2020)

The skies were gloomy for Practice 1 and 2 on Friday, but spirits were high. Racing is back! The Red Bull ring is short (2.7 miles for 71 laps) and very fast. Lap times clock in at just over a minute, which translates to an average speed approaching 160 mph. There was some sun for Practice 3 on Saturday morning. Then came Qualifying, and it wasn’t pretty for the Ferraris. Based on what we saw during testing in Barcelona, we suspected they would be off the pace, but not by this much: Leclerc barely managed to get into Q3, he qualified 7th. Vettel failed to make it to Q3; he will start 11th. Meanwhile, to add insult to injury, Verstappen in the Red Bull was able to make it into Q3 on the longer-lived medium compound tires, meaning he would have a serious advantage in the early laps over all the other front runners starting on softs. He will start 3rd, right behind Bottas (1st) and Hamilton (2nd).

The rest of the top ten was unusual to say the least: Norris (McLaren) was 4th, Albon (in the second Red Bull) 5th, Perez (Racing Point) 6th, Sainz (McLaren) 8th, Stroll (Racing Point) 9th, and Ricciardo (Renault) 10th. So we had both the McLarens and the Racing Points ahead of the Ferraris. Who would have thunk it? But, if you go back and read my report on testing in Barcelona, you will see that my ‘eye’ indicated that both of these teams looked fast at that time. It is to be noted that the Ferraris (and the other cars with Ferrari engines) were posting slower lap times than they did last year. This leads to strong speculation that the secret agreement reached concerning engines and fuel between the FIA and Ferrari resulted in less power from Ferrari engines.

On race morning, just prior to the cars forming on the grid, the stewards handed Hamilton a three position penalty (from second to fifth) for failing to slow down for a yellow flag during Q3. This moved Verstappen, on his longer lived medium tires) from third to second, and it seemed to be an omen that the Dutchman would do well on this day.

Of Note: During coverage of the race it was mentioned that the drivers, mechanics, and other team members had been subjected to 4,000 tests for the virus, and that not one person had tested positive. I guess the restrictions put in place in other countries were a bit more restrictive – and effective – than those imposed here.

Race day was clear and hot. The cars got off to a clean start, with most of them holding their grid positions through the first few laps. Vettel did manage to pass Ricciardo for 10th, the last point paying position. The first incident of importance concerned Verstappen, who experienced engine electrical issues, and was out on lap 11. Meanwhile, Hamilton managed to pass Norris and Albon, and by lap 20 was challenging Bottas for the lead. As the tires began to wear, pit stops loomed. However, deployment of the Safety Car on lap 26 meant that everyone was given a ‘free’ stop; when racing resumed (with most of the front runners on hard tires) there had been little change in the running order.

Vettel spun on lap 31 and fell to 15th place, initiating another Safety Car period. Once racing resumed, Hamilton immediately turned up the juice and began hounding Bottas. However, at about this time it became obvious that the track, namely the high curbs at several of the turns, was slowly damaging the cars. The high attrition rate (only 11 would finish) was likely due to the beatings the cars were taking rather than mechanical issues. This led to team orders (from Mercedes and some others) to take it easy and stay off the curbs or face potential chassis, electrical, and gearbox issues. This forced Hamilton to cease his hot pursuit of the leading Bottas. The Safety Car was deployed again on lap 52, leading some of the front runners (but neither Mercedes) to stop for fresh tires in preparation for a sprint to the end. Immediately after racing resumed, another curb damaged car retired resulting in yet another (short) Safety Car period (number 4! What is this, NASCAR?). After the debris was removed, racing resumed with only 11 laps remaining.

As soon as it did, it became obvious that Hamilton, on his worn hard tires, could not hold off third place Albon, on nearly new soft rubber. Almost immediately, Albon made an outside move into a turn and was able to easily catch and then move past Hamilton, who refused to concede the place. Hamilton’s outside front tire came into contact with Albon’s inside rear tire, causing the Red Bull to slowly pirouette into the gravel. Albon rejoined near the rear of the field; Hamilton continued in second place with a 5 second penalty for causing the collision. Soon thereafter, Leclerc in the Ferrari, who had also stopped for fresh rubber during the Safety Car extravaganza, blew by Norris and Perez. He then proceeded to catch Hamilton, but was advised that Hamilton had been given a penalty so there was no reason to pass him; finishing less than 5 seconds behind would be sufficient. So, after 71 grueling laps, the official finishing order was Bottas, Leclerc, Norris (who also finished less than 5 seconds behind Hamilton), Hamilton, and Sainz. Vettel limped home in 10th.

So, an excellent race with a surprisingly good result for Ferrari. This was a race full of thrills, spills, and surprises, and was the perfect antidote for the doldrums we have been experiencing. F1 is back with a vengeance! I can’t wait until next week.

July 12: GP of Styria (Austria) (2)

The second race of this crazy season was run at the same track as the first; only the name was changed to protect the innocent. The big news of the week was the announcement that, after a two year layoff, Fernando Alonso would be back in F1 for 2021, driving for Renault, where he won the championship twice. Fernando is a great driver and an exuberant presence; he will liven things up next season.

Practice 1 and 2 (run in brilliant sunlight) clearly demonstrated that the Racing Points could be a force to be reckoned with, and that the Ferraris were still slow. The weather was not so compliant on Saturday, which saw barrel-fulls of rain falling from the skies. Practice 3 was cancelled and Qualifying was postponed, and then postponed several more times. The drivers finally ran a very wet, very late qualifying session just before nightfall. The starting order: Hamilton, Verstappen (a scary 1.2 seconds slower), Sainz, Bottas, Ocon, and Albon. Vettel was 10th while Leclerc (with a 3 spot penalty) was 14th. Is this possible?? Tenth and fourteenth?? But wait, it gets worse.

Most of the drivers started on the soft tires and the field generally got off to a clean start … except for the Ferraris. Leclerc, experiencing brain fade perhaps, ran into the rear of Vettel and both Ferraris were out of the race almost before it started. As things settled down, a great battle was being fought for positions 5 – 11 between Sainz, Ocon, Ricciardo, Stroll, Perez, Gasly, and Norris. They were challenging and passing each other on a regular basis. Meanwhile, Hamilton was slowly creating a good buffer between himself and the Verstappen/Bottas duo behind. Verstappen was the first to stop for new tires (lap 25); he was followed shortly thereafter by most of the front runners, with virtually everyone opting for medium tires.

Lap 40 saw a new, and perhaps even more exciting, battle develop in the mid-field, with Perez, Sainz, Ricciardo, Norris, and Stroll battling for position. This went on for more than 10 laps and provided very exciting wheel-to-wheel action. Several laps later, the excitement moved to the head off the pack, where Bottas had caught Verstappen, running in second place. After some tense back and forth action, Bottas managed to secure the position. All of this was great, but the battle that ensued in the last few laps eclipsed everything that had happened before. Stroll, Norris, Ricciardo, Perez, Albon, and Sainz staged an epic fight for positions three to eight. How exciting? Well, Norris passed three (!) cars on the final lap. A moment later, Perez and Albon made serious contact while fighting for third. When the dust had settled, the finishing order was Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen, Albon, Norris, Perez, Stroll, Ricciardo, and Sainz.

Another great race, despite no assistance from the red cars from Marenello.

July 19: GP of Hungary (3)

The gossip in the pits focused on a protest filed by Renault against Racing Point, alleging that the ‘pink panthers’ (as the Racing Points are known) are too close a copy of the 2019 Mercedes car. The particular item of controversy is the front brake ducts. The friggin brake ducts?! Oh well… Where Vettel might drive in 2021 was also a hot topic. Racing Point was again in the conversation regarding this matter.

The track in Hungary is quite different than the one in Austria. It has more turns and slower average speeds (about 130 mph) than the Red Bull ring. On Friday, Practice 1 and 2 were held under dark, threatening clouds. When the rains finally came, they caused many teams to sit out most of P2. The skies were also dark for Practice 3 on Saturday morning, but everyone participated because data was needed. The information we learned was straightforward, but some of it was unexpected: the Red Bulls were having serious handling issues (surprise!) … the Ferraris were better than they had been in Austria (thank God!) … and the Racing Points were FAST (maybe Ferrari should buy an old Mercedes and copy it?).

Qualifying was also held under threatening skies, but actual rainfall was luckily avoided. In a huge, and pleasant, surprise, the Williams cars looked good and posted competitive times. We welcome them to the mid-field after years of languishing at the rear of the pack. But the real news continued to be that the Racing Points were fast and the Red Bulls were having issues. However, it wasn’t until Q2 and Q3 that these points were driven home. Mercedes easily managed to get through Q2, and into Q3, on the medium tires; they will have a huge advantage in the actual race. And, astonishingly, the Racing Points managed to do the same, and gain the same advantage. When the dust had settled, the starting order was startling: Hamilton, Bottas, Stroll (Racing Point), Perez (Racing Point), Vettel, Leclerc, and Verstappen, with the top four all on the longer lived medium compound tires.

It rained hard on race morning, and the track was wet, greasy, and very slippery as the teams began preparing the cars for the main event. Most everyone opted to start on the intermediate-wet tires, meaning that the advantage (slicks) gained by Mercedes and Racing Point was lost. About 20 minutes before the start of the race the cars, as usual, took a slow lap from the pits to their grid positions. How slippery was it you ask: Verstappen spun and smacked a wall while cruising to his grid spot, causing his mechanics to work furiously to fix the damage so that the Red Bull could participate. They managed to effect the required repairs with a few minutes to spare.

Then something really bizarre happened: Several cars (including both Haas) pitted on the formation lap to fit slicks. The track had changed that much in just 20 minutes! They gained a short lived advantage from this action. Despite a lot of jockeying and jostling, the cars got off to a relatively uneventful start. After lap 1 the order was Hamilton, Stroll, Verstappen (whose car seemed improved after the last minute repairs), Vettel, Leclerc, Bottas (a terrible start), and Perez (ditto). Beginning on lap 3, the cars began to pit for slicks, moving the few drivers who had already done this during the formation lap up to the front of the field. But, as the early laps ticked by, the fast guys worked their way back to the lead. At lap 10 the order was Hamilton, Verstappen, Magnussen, Stroll, Grosjean, Leclerc, Bottas, Vettel, and Albon.

From there forward, strategy and battles dominated the race. Strategy centered on the weather. Would it rain again? If so, when? Pit stops were delayed, hoping to get to a rainy period and then going directly to wet tires, thus avoiding a stop. But, although the clouds threatened throughout the race, the rain never materialized. As a result, some drivers ran many laps on tired tires while praying for the skies to open. Meanwhile, battles were abundant. The perpetrators were generally Stroll, Bottas, Vettel, Leclerc, Perez, Albon, Grosjean, and Magnussen, all dicing for positions 4 through 12. It was excellent racing, and the action was virtually continuous, lap-after-lap, as the cars were all essentially capable of similar lap times. As the race approached its halfway point (70 laps total), the cars were forced to stop for new rubber…damn the clouds. Some went to softs, likely planning another stop. Others went to hards, confident that they would survive to the end. Another group chose mediums, hoping for the best? For rain? Nothing was clear except for the fact that none of the teams really had a good handle on what was going to happen next. That makes for good racing.

In the late laps, we had some action at the front. Bottas, who had worked his way back up through the field after a poor start, was now third and on fresher tires; he was clawing his way closer and closer to Verstappen in second place. As the remaining laps dwindled, Bottas slowly caught the Red Bull, and on lap 69 was in its slipstream. It looked as if Bottas could have claimed the position if he had a few more laps to set up a pass, but the race ended before that happened. Thus, the finishing order was Hamilton, Verstappen, Bottas, Stroll (who had driven fast and well, battling for position, but not crashing), Albon (also putting in a good drive in the second Red Bull), Vettel, and Perez. Leclerc managed only a dismal 11th.

August 2: GP of Britain (4)

This was the first of what will be another back-to-back racing weekend (see Austria above), as F1 tries to recover as many ‘lost’ races as possible.

During the two week hiatus between Hungary and Britain, Sergio Perez (Racing Point) managed to catch the Corona Virus. He tested positive and will not be permitted to drive until he endures a quarantine period. Racing Point selected Nico Hulkenberg (formally with Renault) from the list of currently unemployed drivers to fill Perez’s seat for the near future. The only other news of note concerned updates: many teams were sporting new or revised aerodynamic do-dads in an attempt to reduce their gap to the all-conquering Mercedes tyrants.

Silverstone is a most impressive racing facility. The place is huge, and having no fans present makes it feel even huger. The track itself is nearly 3.7 miles long, and it is very fast. These modern rocket ships average about 160 mph and touch 210 mph at the quickest points. Although there are 18 official turns, most of them don’t even force the cars to brake.

Friday defied our impressions of England: it was scorching hot…so hot the soft tires were liquefying at an alarming rate, leading to some sliding and spinning. Luckily, typical English weather (cool, damp, and windy) was expected to return for the weekend. In any case, Practice 1 and Practice 2 were relatively uneventful except for a few lurid spins (including contact with the barriers, as well). Surprisingly, Lance Stroll in the Racing Point looked to be the class of the field, posting third and first best time in the two Practice sessions. The two Mercedes were, unusually, a bit off the pace, perhaps because hot conditions do not suit them.

Saturday was much cooler, restoring order to the proceedings: the Mercedes were back at the top of the time sheets. Since no one seemed to have any love for the soft tires, many of the quicker cars contested Qualifying 2 on the longer lived medium rubber, hoping to use those tires to start the race. They all produced lap times sufficiently fast to advance to Q3, which should give them (Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen, Leclerc, and Stroll) a sizable advantage come race day. Despite a late trip into the gravel, Hamilton managed to grab pole (surprise – surprise), with Bottas, Verstappen, Leclerc, Norris (McLaren), and Stroll at his heels. On the other end of the spectrum, Vettel endured a horrid couple of days, and managed to qualify only 10th. But the real loser was Albon in the second Red Bull, who spun and damaged his car early in P2 and missed most of that session, and then suffered engine problems that caused him to miss most of P3. With little practice time he qualified 12th.

Race day was cool, sunny and very windy; the gusts were of such magnitude that they upset the balance of the cars in certain areas of the track. The start was relatively clean and uneventful, except, naturally, for Albon who smacked Magnusson and was forced to make an early pit stop. The ensuing debris forced a Safety Car period starting on lap 2. Another early (laps 13 to 16) SC period was necessary to dispose of the debris created by a Kvyat crash. This proved an opportune time to change tires, which nearly all the drivers took, going to the hard rubber, hoping they would make it to the end. It also led to the mid-field being compressed and a bit out of its natural order, which produced some good battles as the faster cars worked their way back toward the front. After things settled down a bit, he running order on lap 20 was Hamilton and Bottas (pulling away from everyone else), Verstappen (running alone), Leclerc (hustling the Ferrari faster than expected), Grosjean (who had not stopped).

The drivers seemed to be happy with that situation: cruising at social distance and saving their tires. Nothing much happened for about 20 laps. But, at lap 40 (of 52), things began to change. Blisters were noted on the inside edges of the front tires of both Mercedes (and some others as well), and they were slowing down just a bit to protect their rubber. Meanwhile, Verstappen was turning up the wick and slowly reducing the gap to Bottas ahead. The drivers in the field were also pushing harder, fighting to get into the higher points paying positions.

Then…the fickle finger of fate came into play. With just a handful of laps remaining, Bottas’ front tires seemed to go flaccid, and then a lap later to simply disintegrate. He slowed significantly, and half a lap later Verstappen was on his tail, and then by the floundering Mercedes. Seconds later, Saenz’s front tires suffered the same fate, and he too was quickly passed by the cars behind him. In response to this carnage, Verstappen, with second place well in hand, stopped for fresh tires, hoping to add fastest lap to his bounty of the day. Then, on the final lap the unthinkable occurred, Hamilton’s front tires also shredded. He drove the last quarter lap on his front rims, but did manage to reach the finish line, and still managed to win the race. Man, this guy is just LUCKY. If the race had been 53 laps instead of 52, he would have finished last. And Verstappen (?), he was kicking himself for having stopped for new tires on lap 51. If he hadn’t gotten greedy, victory would have been his. The finishing order was Hamilton, Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Norris, Ocon, Gasly, Albon (a miracle!), Stroll, and Vettel.

August 9: GP of Britain II (5)

Dubbed the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix (the first GP race was held in Britain in 1950), this was another second race of a double-header. The paddock gossip centered on Nico Hulkenberg (who would again be driving for Racing Point in lieu of Sergio Perez, still on the covid list) and that the Renault protest of the Racing Point for its similarity to the Mercedes was upheld. Racing Point was fined and penalized 15 constructors’ points.

All the Practice sessions were run in hot (for England), windy weather. For some reason, Pirelli supplied softer (more fragile) tires than the ones that had failed in such spectacular fashion the previous weekend. This meant that the soft compound tires for this race were likely only good for gathering data and contesting Q3. It also meant that two stops would likely be required. In any case, the Practice sessions went off without much to note. The Mercedes were fast, as expected, and Nico Hulkenberg was faster than expected in the Racing Point. Sebastian Vettel’s performance was also unexpected: He seemed disinterested and slow (generally half a second slower than Charles Leclerc, his Ferrari teammate). Has Vettel packed it in for 2020? And perhaps for the long run?

Qualifying also went off without much to note. Verstappen ran Q2 on the hard compound tires, meaning he will start the race on them. Everyone else of note will start on the mediums. Whether this proves to be advantage remains to be seen, but Verstappen must be applauded for doing something different to try and stem the Mercedes juggernaut. The grid will look like this: Bottas, Hamilton, Hulkenberg (!), Verstappen, Ricciardo, Stroll, Gasly, Leclerc, Albon, and Norris. Vettel will start 12th.

Race day was HOT (again, by British standards), a distinct disadvantage to the Mercedes, which seem to abuse their tires more than the others, especially when it is hot. Meanwhile, it looked to be advantage Verstappen, the only front runner who would start on the longer lived hard rubber. The question remained, would these factors make the Red Bull competitive with the Mercedes? In a relatively uneventful start, Verstappen edged past Hulkenberg to grab third place, with only the two Mercedes ahead. Game on! Meanwhile, Vettel’s woes continued; he spun and dropped to last place.

The cars maintained order for about 8 laps, about the time when the medium tires began to show distress. Albon was the first (lap 7) to stop, with most of the others following soon thereafter. Meanwhile, Verstappen’s tires looked to be in fine fettle. Consequently, the Mercedes were slowing and Verstappen was on their tails, smelling a possible move to the lead. Rather than fight a losing battle on the track, the two Mercedes pitted, presenting Verstappen with the lead. On lap 25 the running order was Verstappen, Bottas, Hamilton, Hulkenberg, Stroll, Ricciardo, and Leclerc, all of whom had stopped except for Verstappen, still circulating on his original hard tires. But the big surprise was the Mercedes’ lack of pace after their pit stops. Despite their new tires, neither of the German cars was making much headway in catching the Red Bull ahead. Verstappen finally made his first stop on lap 27, switching to the medium rubber. Verstappen rejoined the fray immediately behind Bottas, whose second set of tires were already showing distress, and immediately passed him for the lead. Hallelujah – fighting at the front!

Bottas stopped for a second time on lap 35. Verstappen, apparently with little love for his medium tires, which were going bad after only 8 laps, copied Bottas’ move (both opted for hard tires to run to the finish). Meanwhile, Hamilton was lurking in the weeds. He postponed his second stop to lap 42, when he mounted a new set of hard tires and began to crack off fast laps, trying to catch the three cars (Verstappen, Bottas, and Leclerc – who had not stopped a second time) ahead of him. I must say, there is little more exciting than watching Hamilton run down cars ahead of him, lap after lap cutting the leaders’ margins by whole seconds. And this was vintage Hamilton. Despite lapped cars to impede his progress, Hamilton caught and blew by Leclerc on lap 47, and then did the same to Bottas on lap 50. With two laps remaining, only Verstappen remained ahead. Despite a valiant effort, Hamilton’s tires began to protest the speeds he was running, and he was unable to catch the Red Bull ahead. The finishing order was Verstappen, Hamilton, Bottas, Leclerc, Albon, Stroll, and Hulkenberg. Vettel managed only a pitiful 12th.

This was a good race with plenty of excitement on track and a tense strategic battle going on behind the scenes. Seeing a car other than a Mercedes win was cathartic, and we can only hope that it will be the first of many more such outcomes.

August 16: GP of Spain (6)

Following a recurring theme, it was once again very hot. This heat wave should not be a surprise as the European races, typically held in the spring, were postponed to the summer. Anticipating the conditions, Pirelli supplied harder tires for the race at the Barcelona circuit, a 2.9 mile, 66 lap, fest of sharp, tight corners. Given the conditions, tire wear was expected to be high, and two stops were considered to be the way to go.

The Practice sessions went off without much of note occurring. Ferrari supplied a new chassis for Vettel, who had been complaining of ‘strange issues’ with the one he had been running. Unfortunately, the new chassis did little to alleviate the German’s lack of pace. So, it came as no surprise when Hamilton, Bottas, and Verstappen dominated the time charts. The Ferraris, meanwhile, were mired in the field. The Qualifying sessions were also mostly uneventful. Everyone ran Q2 on the soft tires, meaning that they would all start on tires of that compound. Although it was tight at the front, the starting order was of little surprise: Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen, Perez, Stroll, and Albon. Leclerc managed only a dismal 9th on the grid, while Vettel was 11th. His only consolation was being able to start the race on the medium tires.

So, the Ferraris have gone from second best, to ‘best of the rest,’ to simply ‘one of the rest.’ What a dismal year for our team.

Race day brought more heat: the drivers were clearly uncomfortable during the pre-race ceremonies, held in the blazing sunlight. When the lights went out, Stroll (Racing Point) and Verstappen made spectacular starts, while Bottas was slow off the line. As a consequence the running order at the end of lap one was Hamilton, Verstappen, Stroll, Bottas, and Perez. Once DRS was enabled though, Bottas was able to pass Stroll to claim third place. After that, things got boring, with Hamilton controlling the pace from the lead, driving a slow, strategic race, and looking to save his tires. No one seemed inclined to force the issue. On lap 18, Albon in the second Red Bull was the first to stop for tires, opting for the hard compound, which turned out to be a poor choice. He was never a factor again. Verstappen stopped on lap 22 and, seeing the problems his teammate was having on the hard tires, opted for the mediums. This brought on a parade to the pits, and virtually all of the front runners were on new rubber by lap 28. Once again, a long period of little action ensued, except for Leclerc’s engine problems. He parked his Ferrari on lap 37.

As anticipated, two stops were necessary, with second stops starting on lap 40 when Albon changed to medium tires. Two laps later, Verstappen stopped for mediums, and soon after that virtually the entire field was in the pits mounting new rubber. Bottas chose softs – most others opted for mediums. When the dust had settled at about lap 45, Vettel, circulating in 5th spot, was the only contender who had yet to stop a second time; he soldiered to the end on his worn shoes, being passed by several cars (including Stroll) on newer rubber as the race dwindled to its finish. In the waning laps, Bottas mounted a charge against Verstappen, but he never really got close enough to challenge the Red Bull for second place. The final finishing order was Hamilton, Verstappen, Bottas, Stroll, Perez (second Racing Point), Sainz (McLaren), Vettel, and Albon.

This was a tightly contested, strategically run race. Hamilton, leading from start to finish, controlled the pace and the outcome. It wasn’t a great show, but sometimes that is the way things shake out.

August 30: GP of Belgium at SPA – Francorchamps (7)

SPA is perhaps the most beloved track on the circuit. It is a long lap (4.4 miles – only 44 race laps) and features ridiculous elevation changes and some very long straights. SPA favors cars with high top speed, and plenty of horsepower. As such, it would likely be advantage Mercedes and disadvantage Ferrari. Only the bright sun spoiled the perfect weekend for the Silver Arrows, which prefer cool gloomy weather. Friday Practice confirmed the Italians’ greatest fears. The Mercedes and Red Bulls were comfortably fastest, with only the Renaults looking to be semi-serious challengers. Meanwhile the Ferraris were at the rear of the pack, and a subject of mild ridicule from the commentators. Saturday Practice brought no help for the red cars, and Qualifying merely confirmed the facts that had already been observed and noted. The grid order would be Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen, Ricciardo (who posted a blistering lap in the Renault), Albon, Ocon (in the second Renault), and Sainz (who did not start due to subsequent mechanical issues). Leclerc could no better than 14th, with Vettel one spot behind the Frenchman. It is to be noted that the top three managed to start on the medium tires, which should be an advantage as opposed to the short lived softs. On the other hand, those starting below tenth place, with a free choice of tires, opted for the full gamut of rubber, indicating that there was no universal agreement as to the best strategy to run the race.

The start was hotly contested, with much jostling for position and numerous wheel-to-wheel battles. Perez (Racing Point) pulled off an amazing pass of Ricciardo, a driver who is known for being difficult to get by. But, at the end of lap one, the running order was little changed. Of note, Leclerc, on soft tires, managed to move from 13th to 8th. In any case, the first ten laps provided a cornucopia of nail biting action. As the soft tires began to fade, a massive two car accident brought out the Safety Car, providing a convenient slowing of the cars and an opportunity for ‘cheap’ pit stops, which most everyone accepted gladly, switching to the hard tires. When racing resumed on lap 14, the running order was Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen, Gasly, Perez, and Ricciardo (with both Gasly and Perez having not stopped for tires).

The Safety Car period bunched up the field, and, with most cars on new tires, a period of many good fights for position ensued, featuring a very entertaining run of laps, as the cars were all posting similar lap times. By lap 35, however, the tires were fading again and the pace slowed significantly. No one seemed able to challenge the two Mercedes at the front, allowing Hamilton to set a pace that would allow his tires to make it to the end of the contest (lap 44). As a result, the final 8 – 9 laps were relatively uneventful. The finishing order was no surprise: Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen, Ricciardo, Ocon (Renault), and Albon. Vettel was 13th, Leclerc 14th.

Since several cars failed to finish, the Ferraris were essentially at the very rear of the field. A sad state of affairs. Above I opined that the Ferraris have gone from second best, to ‘best of the rest,’ to simply ‘one of the rest. They are now ‘behind the rest.’

September 6: Grand Prix of Italy at Monza (8)

Monza is known as the ‘Temple of Speed’; it is a 3.6 mile track with top speeds over 215 mph and average lap speeds above 165 mph. Advantage Mercedes – disadvantage Ferrari.

Practice: Practice was generally uneventful. As expected, the Mercedes were consistently at the top of the time sheets, posting several times below 1 minute 20 seconds. Verstappen had a major spin in P1, while Vettel had a lessor one in P2. Practicing slipstreaming with your teammate dominated P3.

Qualifying: Lap times were quite close, but Mercedes was still top dog. As is becoming normal, the teams waited until the very last moment to start their final timed laps in the Qualifying sessions, leading to messy traffic congestion on the track. Someone has to realize that this strategy leads to chaos and may result in tragedy. In the end though, the starting order featured a few surprises: Hamilton, Bottas (only 0.06 of a second adrift), Sainz (McLaren), Perez (Racing Point), Verstappen (oddly off the pace), Norris, Ricciardo, and Stroll. All of the top 10 would start on the soft rubber. Leclerc managed a woeful 13th, which was still significantly better than Vettel’s 17th. How the mighty have fallen.

Race: Bottas made a horrid start, and was rewarded by a gaggle of cars pushing past him in the first few corners. After a lot of early jostling, the running order was Hamilton, Sainz, Norris, Perez, Ricciardo, and Bottas. Despite all the action and disruption, the Ferraris failed to make any headway in the early laps. Then, on lap 6, to add insult to injury, Vettel’s brakes failed and he was out. The cars, on fading soft tires, then circulated with little change in position for a series of laps. On lap 18, Leclerc was first to pit for fresh rubber, a poor move as Magnussen’s car failed a few laps later, leading to a safety car period. However, as luck would have it, Magnussen’s car was abandoned just at the start of the pit entry, which led the Stewards to close the pits for safety concerns. But, several drivers, most notably race leader Lewis Hamilton failed to notice this fact, or simply ignored it. They were given 10 second stop-and-go penalties for their transgressions. Pit lane was finally opened on lap 22, prompting most of the field to stop for tires. Soon thereafter (lap 25), Leclerc had a massive shunt that brought out the seldom seen red flag. The cars parked on pit lane waiting for the race to resume. Stroll, who had yet to stop, was permitted to change tires during this hiatus, thereby gaining a big advantage.

After a quite long delay, the cars rolled to the starting grid and then made another standing start…just as if the race were beginning rather than resuming. Hamilton was still in the lead, but this was short lived as he immediately went back to the pits to serve his stop-and-go penalty. He rejoined last, some 30+ seconds behind the leader. Meanwhile, Stroll, who re-started immediately behind Hamilton, made a poor start and dropped to 4th, behind Gasly, Raikkonen, and Sainz. What a strange leaderboard!

Once things settled down a bit, most of the front runners were able to pass Raikkonen, who fell back into the mid-field. But, all eyes were at the rear of the field, where Hamilton was driving like a man possessed in an attempt to salvage the race, which had seemed to be his property just minutes previously. In less than 10 laps he caught the first of the laggards, and then passed Albon for last place on lap 40, and then Russell (lap 41), Grosjean (42), Latiffi (44), Raikkonen (47), Perez (49), Kvyat (51), and Ocon (53). Then, the race ended. The finishing order was Gasly, Sainz, Stroll, Norris, Bottas, Ricciardo, and Hamilton.

Wow, a fabulous race that featured a bit of all manner of strange happenings … and a completely unanticipated podium. Any bettor that laid money down on this top three would have made a killing.

Meanwhile the Ferraris got killed, finishing 18th and 20th. They were lucky that there were no Italian fans in the grandstands, because a lynch mob just might have been organized if there were.

September 13: GP of Tuscany at Mugello (Italy) (9)

The big news bouncing around the paddock concerned Sebastian Vettel, who will be driving for Racing Point next year. His teammate will be Racing Point incumbent Lance Stroll. Sergio Perez will be looking for a new ride. Racing Point is under new ownership, and the new management wants to make a splash with a name pilot for their suddenly quite competitive car. While Vettel will bring a wealth of experience, inside knowledge, and guile with him, it will be interesting to see if he can precipitate a jump to the front of the field for Racing Point, or even be faster than his young teammate. Does Vettel have the fire to once again challenge the leaders?

While I have not said much about it, Team Williams, which has been in the doldrums for several years, has been sold to an international financial conglomerate. The turn over happened in early September, and a gaggle of previously unknown suits were in the paddock this race weekend checking out their new toys. It is sad to see this family owned and once dominate team go corporate.

Mugello is a private track owned by Ferrari, situated near Florence. This race was organized and timed so that Ferrari could celebrate participation in its 1000th GP, more than any other competitor. Unfortunately, the virus eliminated fan participation and Ferrari’s poor showing this year eliminated much of the jubilation. Bad timing!

As for the track, over its 3.3 miles (and 59 laps) it is quite curvy with one long straight. It rewards downforce. High tire wear was anticipated.

Practice: As is becoming the norm, Practice was relatively uneventful. Leclerc showed quite well, but Bottas was definitely fastest of all, with Verstappen and Stroll also on the pace. The data gathered was a harbinger of problems to come: tires, especially the softs, were overheating quickly and fading fast.

Qualifying: Times in the field were extremely tight, with 0.3 second generally covering 5th through 15th. Of note was the poor showing by Sebastian Vettel, who was significantly slower than his teammate. When the final flag flew, the starting order was back to the status quo, with Hamilton at the front followed by Bottas, Verstappen, Albon, Leclerc, Stroll, and Perez. Vettel was 14th. All of the top 10 will start on soft tires.

Race: Several cars near the front of the grid (including Hamilton, Verstappen, and Gasly) made terrible starts, leading to a congestion of cars and shunts throughout the field, leading to deployment of the Safety Car on the first lap. When the slow period ended on lap 6, both Verstappen and Gasly were out. On the re-start, Bottas, now leading, got cute behind the Safety Car and caused a serious problem behind him leading to another series of massive crashes and another seldom seen Red Flag (2nd in two weeks, highly unusual). After chronicling and removing the debris, Latifi, Magnussen, Giovinazzi, Ocon, and Sainz were out and the field (or what was left of it) was assembled for another standing start, during which Hamilton immediately passed Bottas for the lead.

Things settled down a bit, but serious racing action returned on laps 18 thru 28, when Stroll passed Leclerc, Albon passed Perez, and Perez passed Leclerc. Leclerc was the first to pit (lap 22), but by lap 30 virtually all of the cars were on fresh rubber, hoping their new shoes would make it to the end of the race. The running order on lap 35 was Hamilton, Bottas, Ricciardo, Stroll, Albon, Perez, Norris, and Leclerc. While the two Mercedes were on hard tires, most of the rest had opted for mediums. Then, on lap 44 with the end in sight, Stroll suffered a puncture and spun off the track at full velocity. He clobbered a safety barrier, destroying both his car and the barrier. So, the race was once again…red flagged. This marked three red flags in two weeks, an astounding oddity: the previous last red flag was more than three years ago. During the down time, virtually all cars took on new tires. Then, with about 10 laps to go, the field reformed on the grid and another standing start was undertaken.

Bottas made another poor start, and was immediately passed by Ricciardo. However, once it got going, Bottas’ Mercedes simply accelerated by the Aussie with little fanfare. Several laps later, Albon in the second Red Bull was on Ricciardo’s tail, with a nice battle for position ensuing, won by young Red Bull pilot. The final finishing order was Hamilton, Bottas, Albon, Ricciardo, Perez, and Norris (McLaren). Leclerc was 8th, and Vettel, far off the pace, was 10th.

This was an interesting and often exciting race, with lots of action and automotive carnage. It is simply sad that Ferrari played such an insignificant role in the proceedings.

September 27: GP of Russia (10)

The track at Sochi (home of the recent Winter Olympics) is 3.6 miles (and 53 laps) of driver difficulty. In addition to having a low grip/slippery surface, it is dusty, further reducing adhesion. As a consequence, average lap speeds are less than 140 mph.

Practice: The practice sessions demonstrated the lack of grip, producing numerous spins and slews, and a few serious collisions with the barriers. Despite all the action, the top three (Hamilton, Bottas, and Verstappen) dominated the time charts, and the pundits were wondering if they would be able to contest Q2 on the medium tires, thereby gaining a huge advantage.

Qualifying: Qualifying brought far different weather conditions than those of the practice sessions: suddenly it was cool and cloudy, and the wind direction had shifted 90 degrees. With no chance to test these new conditions, the drivers were initially quite careful. Q1 showed that the Ferraris were frightfully slow on the straights, yet they both eked their way into Q2. As expected, the top three initially contested Q2 on the medium tires so they could be used for the start of the race. Everything looked good for them until Hamilton’s top Q2 time was disqualified. Then, Vettel suffered a major crash, bringing out the red flag. Suddenly, little time remained and Hamilton was in danger of being shut out of Q3 altogether, meaning he would start 15th. However, Mr. Lucky was able to start a fast lap with less than 2 seconds to spare, but on the soft tires. He succeeded to moving to Q3. In comparison, Q3 was uneventful and the starting order was of little surprise: Hamilton, Verstappen, Bottas, Perez, Ricciardo, and Sainz. Leclerc was relegated to 10th, Vettel to 14th. Of note: Verstappen and Bottas would start on the medium tires (big advantage), while everyone else in the top 10 (including Hamilton) would be on the softs. Many of those outside the top 10 opted to start on the hard tires, while the others were mostly on the mediums.

Race: Race day started in controversy and uncertainty. It had been noted that, during Qualifying, Hamilton had undertaken one or two practice starts from outside the designated area. After start of the race, the stewards penalized Hamilton 10 seconds for these transgressions. And what a start it was! Verstappen veered off track, but managed to right the ship just when disaster seemed inevitable. Perez made a poor start, disrupting the progress of all those behind him. Sainz went off, as did Stroll, who had a full on collision with the barriers. Out came the Safety Car, and several slow laps ensued as the debris was cleared. When racing resumed on lap 5, the running order was Hamilton, Bottas, Verstappen, Ocon and Ricciardo (both in Renaults), and Perez.

After all that, a series of exciting duels played out. Laps 10-15 saw a heated battle between Norris, Albon, and Russell, while lap 16 featured a brilliant pass by Perez on Ricciardo. The pit stops for the front runners began at about this time, with Hamilton serving his penalty while stopping for tires. Most of those who stopped switched from soft to hard tires. Bottas and Verstappen, however, who had started on the medium tires, delayed their stops to laps 26 and 27 respectively. At lap 30, after everyone had made one stop, the running order was Bottas, Verstappen, Hamilton (situated so because of his penalty), Perez, Ricciardo, Leclerc, and Ocon. From there on, there was little action at the front. The leaders were too widely separated, and everyone was nursing their tires, which had to last another 25 laps. In the field however, the action was intense. For example, an excellent battle spanning several laps (44-48) was waged between Norris, Albon, and Gasly. The final finishing order was Bottas, Verstappen, Hamilton, Perez, Ricciardo, and Leclerc. Vettel managed only 13th.

Formula 1 Summary (Races 1 through 10)

In an attempt to make up for lost time, ten races were run in 13 weeks, a very intensive schedule. This seemed to cause some stress in the system, but the races went off without serious difficulties. There was virtually no spread of the virus within the teams or among the vast cast of characters necessary to make the circus run. Overall, it must be said that F1 put on a very presentable show under very difficult conditions. The only real fly in the ointment is the absence of the fans, but nothing can really be done about that at the present time.

The other problems concern Mercedes Benz and Ferrari. Those danged Germans just keep winning almost all of the races, and thereby spoiling the excitement. Conversely, Ferrari is having a dismal season, and is not really in the hunt for anything besides mediocracy. With that said, let’s have a look at the standings with ten races in the books.

Drivers:

Hamilton…. 205 Bottas…161 Verstappen…128
Norris……… 65 Albon……64 Ricciardo……..63
Leclerc……..57 (Vettel is in 13th place with 17 points)

Manufacturers:

Mercedes Benz…… 366 Red Bull…….192 McLaren…… 106
Racing Point………. 104 Renault…….. 99 Ferrari………. 74

This makes the situation clear; Mercedes will once again win both Championships (drivers and manufacturers) again in 2020. It is all over but the shouting.

Considering that the rules, and the cars, and therefore likely the pecking order, will remain basically unchanged for 2021, our mantra can’t be ‘wait until next year’; rather it must be ‘wait until the year after next.’